GOLD

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Baha
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GOLD

Post by Baha » Fri Jan 08, 2016 7:38 pm

Gold had a nice square recently. I am waiting for the pull back move to exhaust itself thoroughly.
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Simon.B
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Re: GOLD

Post by Simon.B » Sat Jan 09, 2016 5:44 pm

Hi Baha,

So far this bounce in Gold seems corrective, I don't think Gold is ready for a meaningful move higher yet. But we should see multi year low this year.

Simon

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Baha
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Re: GOLD

Post by Baha » Sat Jan 09, 2016 6:13 pm

Hi Simon,

I agree with everything you said above.

I will post more charts and I would love to see others post Gold charts as well.

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ForJL
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Re: GOLD

Post by ForJL » Sun Jan 10, 2016 12:54 pm

This sounded like an interesting topic so thought I would give it a go even though I haven’t touched gold in some time. I posted three charts below for your consideration. Each one looks at the market in a different way but they all have one common thread which I will briefly touch on later. First up is a GGHPs chart. I have been using these types of charts now for quite some time and have a lot of confidence in them. However one should keep in mind that I did all three charts rather quickly for this post and the possibility remains that better solutions could be had with more study. In any case a red horizontal line has been drawn where there could be a time/price signal … specifically @1166 at 012216. The second chart is a GCST and is still experimental and complicated. Here we see price containment has been solid and CIT signals outstanding. Next one is due to come in on 022616. The final chart is that of a Vortex. While I know it looks “busy” it’s really not. It evolves over time and in this particular case nothing should be considered before the large blue arrow you see on the chart. On this chart we see that 1166 is a possibility also (magenta line) and that there is a possible time signal (if you know how to look for them) at 012216-122916.
Now the common thread that I spoke about and what I can’t show you because of its proprietary nature is the cycle work that I do. What it is telling me now is that it is possible that a major cyclic bottom has been achieved because certain criteria have been met. However, and this is very important, the criteria that has been met only gives this possibility a roughly 15% chance that it actually has occurred. Things get far more interesting towards October/November of this year. Just the same you want to watch @1200 to 1180 on a sliding scale basis from now through @March for evidence of a potential significant cyclic bottom.
Now let’s discuss some of the wildcards. First, from a technical perspective we have a long term Wedge pattern that could be providing a defined trading range for the market. A breech of that range could prove significant.
The other wildcards are of a fundamental nature. First we have China which has lost all credibility with global financial analysts. From banking reserves to currency manipulation they have proven they don’t know how to handle the downturn in their economy. Further chaos in that region could easily trigger a safe haven flight into gold and spark a huge rally. Finally there is our own economy. The Fed has embarked on its long awaited policy of raising rates which I personally believe is madness. (What happened to Phillips?) It should have been done a long time ago along with fiscal policy changes. It has been my long held belief that monetary policy alone would never get the job done and while some may argue it has I personally can’t see it. [To complicated a subject to get into here] Anyhow put these two wildcards together and you have a potential combustible which could send the market soaring.
That’s all I have time for now.

Best,
Joe
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Simon.B
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Re: GOLD

Post by Simon.B » Mon Jan 11, 2016 6:26 am

Hi Joe,

Nice charts...thanks.

Looking at Gold from a purely technical perspective - until at the very least 1170 is taken out on the upside, Gold will remain in well defined downtrend. I don't know anything about Gold fundamentals, but most of what you have mentioned has been around for a very long time and I believe is fully discounted by the Market. But in general, when we have a drawn out decline in any Market like we have in Gold, "real bottom" does not usually take place until the last set of weak hands has sold and there are virtually no bulls left, I don't think Gold is there yet.

Simon.

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Baha
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Re: GOLD

Post by Baha » Tue Feb 09, 2016 3:11 pm

Gold rally may start losing some steam here..I am not short just yet but may get there soon. We will see.
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Baha
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Re: GOLD

Post by Baha » Thu Feb 11, 2016 1:11 pm

Looks like as long as the treasury bull continues and the oil price goes down, gold will keep moving up. If it breaks above $1247-1248 today it will be interesting..We'll see what happens.
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Baha
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Re: GOLD

Post by Baha » Fri Mar 25, 2016 6:46 pm

I have been wrong on GOLD before as seen above. Before this weekend I went long hoping to catch the move upside. I may well be wrong again. We will see.
Spring is here. Vernal equinox is a good time to be.
HAPPY EASTER everyone!
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Baha
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Re: GOLD

Post by Baha » Tue Apr 05, 2016 2:20 pm

Projecting more upside move on Gold. I may be wrong as always. I would rather lose my opinion than money. I have been learning the importance of position sizing. It makes all the difference. Then, all of a sudden being wrong is OK! I just began scratching the surface of it. I believe, robust position sizing in future will make a lot of difference. I would consider my self a swing trader. If anyone has suggestions on books about "position sizing" besides Van Tharp, please let me know.

I think the gold hasn't bottomed yet. Normally I would wait for the pullback move to be over. I think I am being a little aggressive here. If I am right, we can go up to $ 1300 which compensates for being aggressive. Any suggestions from seasoned traders are welcomed. happy trading
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Baha
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Re: GOLD

Post by Baha » Wed May 04, 2016 12:02 pm

Looks like the corrective rally has ended. Went short.
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