Mirror Image Fractal Forecasts

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ForJL
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Mirror Image Fractal Forecasts

Post by ForJL » Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:06 pm

One of the things I have been working on lately is trying to find fractal forecasts using the Mirror Image Foldback tool (MIF). We can do this because Earik put in this really cool option that allows us to change the growth rate of each bar. While this all sounds pretty easy trust me when I say it’s not. You need to figure out the harmonics of the whole thing and then the anchor point which I believe lies in transient energy. (I’ll try and go into that more in the future) Anyhow the basic idea is simple. Use a smaller fractal time frame to predict the future in a larger one. In the first chart we see a MIF prediction that is over and lasted @218 bars. That it is over is fine … we are looking for bigger fish to fry. Now look over at the 64m (2nd chart). We are using the same anchor with a different growth rate to predict the future.


This is only a quick example of a project that is only in it’s infancy. Perhaps some of you might want to take a look at it and post your results also. It would be a great addition to the community.

Best,
Joe
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ForJL
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Re: Mirror Image Fractal Forecasts

Post by ForJL » Tue Apr 21, 2020 1:47 am

[Was pressed for time this morning so hopefully this will give you a better idea of what I am doing here]


Okay, so after some background numbers crunching this morning I determined that there was a Transient Energy signal around 0800. By simply moving the MIF tool back and forth I was able to lock in at 0825 on the 4 minute chart using a growth ration of 2.32 pts per bar. Direction was solid until @1140 where it inverts (first chart) and more or less stays inverted the rest of the day. After getting the initial forecast in place I had been looking to the next higher fractal but around 1030 I wanted to try something different. This time around I decided to look deeper into the fractal instead. Time frames must be harmonically linked so I am now looking at the 1 minute (trust me on this). I again start at 0800 using a growth ratio of .64 pts per bar (both 2.32 and .64 are both part of Gerbino Sequence). Notice I have now moved down the scale. We find a solid a solid forecast beginning at 0839 and it stays so to approximately 1240. (Second Chart) This gives us a fractal forecast length of around 240 bars. At this point in the project I am trying to determine if the FFR (Fractal Forecast Length) will hold true throughout all fractal periods under observation. In other words will the 4 minute forecast be valid for 240 bars also? The final chart shows the 4 minute forecast with Energy Flow techniques applied … simply another test done for my benefit.



It’s way to early to say anything definitive about this yet. The first question I ask myself is it worth all the work? I can say that I was generally pleased with the 4 minute forecast as far as direction was concerned but really don’t want to get bogged down doing the EF workup on it also. I really liked the forecast on the 1 minute for as long as it worked. In the approximately 2 hours I used it I would have to say that it really produced.



I have been working on this for about a week so the first baby steps are in the book. Where I go from here I can’t say. A lot will depend on how much time I have to devote to the project. I have no programming skills so testing is always an issue for me. In any case I will be glad to take any comments, questions, or suggestions.




All the best,
Joe
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ForJL
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Re: Mirror Image Fractal Forecasts

Post by ForJL » Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:07 pm

I hope you guys are getting this. In any case here is today's forecast. We are past the FFL I spoke about last night so results remain to be seen. If you were to take the next logical step another Fractal Forecast could exist at a higher harmonic again beginning at approximately 0800 yesterday and with a higher growth rate then 2.32. Probably 5.49 but haven't taken it that far for reasons I don't have time to go into at the moment.

Joe
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Re: Mirror Image Fractal Forecasts

Post by ForJL » Wed Apr 22, 2020 6:10 pm

A quick update shows the MIF prediction did pretty good overall. That said, the last energy wave was essentially useless from a trading perspective even though we were in the ballpark on the close. While it caught the rally into 1000 well enough you would never have caught the drop into noon and subsequent rally into the close off of this prediction. Interesting results but more testing needed. Right now I'm watching the progress of the 64m chart I posted the other day and hope to have an update on that next week.


Joe
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Re: Mirror Image Fractal Forecasts

Post by ForJL » Mon May 04, 2020 1:15 am

Sorry about the delay in the follow up but been very busy with things unrelated to trading lately. So when combined with trading spare time has been hard to find.


As for results the last prediction more or less appeared to end with the last post (first chart). You can make the argument that there was an inversion soon after that would have carried the prediction a bit further but not really enamored with such a read of the forecast. I'm left with the fact that the chosen anchor was either a poor one or I must develop a better understanding of forecast decay ... perhaps both.


If you turn your attention to the second chart you will see I am doing something a little different here. If we are indeed dealing with fractals and growth ratios we should be able to move down the scale as readily as we move up. I isolated a transient energy signature at approximately 2330 and used that as my anchor. I determined the growth ratio to be 3.57 and mapped out the forecast. As you can see the forecast catches the top perfectly in time and when adding EF modifications (in this case (399 x 2) x2) we also nail the top nearly as perfectly. The forecast at this point is still ongoing. [note: the original forecast is the blue lines on the bottom of the chart while the adjusted forecast runs over price.] While all this is nice for the hypothesis to be correct however as I already stated, we should be able to move down the scale to the next harmonic time-frame and growth ratio. To that end I direct you to the third chart which shows you the results of that particular effort and leave the judgement up to you. [note: growth ratio on the 4 minute was 2.32]


In summary I am pleased with how the project is developing so far. Having said that I also feel that I am dancing around something significant that is right in front of me but eludes me just the same. Time well tell of course as it always does.


All the best,
Joe
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Re: Mirror Image Fractal Forecasts

Post by ForJL » Fri May 08, 2020 11:28 am

If performance of this technique were to be measured from swing high to low of prediction so far you would have to say it has been phenomenal. In fact that is what these kind of predictions are meant to do. If you want more detail you must look deeper into the fractal. Having said that in the real world of trading we would have suffered badly beginning on 5/3/20 through 5/5/20 (highlighted) and there is no getting around that. We appear to be back on track and there has been no inversions which is all good. However if you are going to take credit for the good you have to own up to the bad. While I am not exactly sure what happened there my guess is we ran into another short but strong transient energy signal though to this point I have yet to isolate and identify it. Bottom line this is all part of the process in trying to develop something new and on we go. ;)

Joe
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Re: Mirror Image Fractal Forecasts

Post by ForJL » Thu May 14, 2020 9:49 am

Hi Guys,


So the forecast period came to an end yesterday and wanted to do a quick wrap up of the results. First I want to point out the MIF obviously goes on for some time but only went this far because this is the defined optimum forecast period as best as I understand it at this point. This could change in the future but stands as is for now. Turning to the actual forecast itself I would have to say it was pretty darn good. We did of course have that setback in the second energy wave which I covered in the previous post but overall results I believe were quite strong nailing both price and time targets. Additionally one needs to consider the results of the smaller fractal (See 05/03 Post) that were equally as good. At the end of the day it’s all about making money so the question one has to ask is would this technique have helped in that endeavor? For me the answer is it actually did. As we moved deeper and deeper into the forecast period I gained more confidence in the prediction and it helped shape my trading decisions in a positive way.


Obviously given these results I would have to say that more research into the technique is warranted. If I am correct about the validity of the approach it actually could open up other doors and opportunities for the trader. However that is a subject for another day as I need to get started with prep work for the trading day at hand. ;-)


All the best,
Joe
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Re: Mirror Image Fractal Forecasts

Post by ForJL » Sat May 23, 2020 7:48 am

Hi Guys,


The idea behind this post is just to get you up to speed on some of the testing I have be doing lately. This way if you want you can try it on your own. There are some of you that are doing that right? ;-) Anyway I isolated a transient energy signal at @ 0730 on 05/20. (See first chart below) In it there are seven energy waves that can easily be seen after segmentation is carried out. (This is actually the third step in forecast process after isolating a TES (Transient Energy Signal) and figuring out the growth rate) Even without the EF modifications and just using the raw forecast we still would have been left with useful information if we were trying to trade the swings during this period. Not perfect, but pretty good. The expansion ratio was the Gerbino Sequence number 3.57. So now lets stick with raw forecast and take a look at the next harmonic period down … the 1 minute time domain. Take a look at the second and third charts. This is the normal and inverted respectively, raw forecast of the MIF using the same TES as mentioned above … @ 0730 on 05/20. Obviously there are quite a few inversions and again not perfect but even using casual observation one can readily see the merit behind the forecast.

[It should be noted that I am using a growth rate of .98 here which is part of the Gerbino Sequences of numbers also. While one would logically think that if we were to move one degree down the harmonic scale … from 4 minute to 1 minute … we would only need to move down once in the sequence of numbers also. My research thus far has shown that this is not the case. In this instance we went from 3.57 directly down to .98 skipping 2.32 and 1.51. Unfortunately at this point I can’t even venture a guess as to why.]

Okay, all very interesting but nothing really new. So what I wanted to know is what happens when we start taking a closer look at the individual energy waves. I decided to look deeper into energy wave #6 of the 4 minute harmonic. I indeed was able to isolate a TES beginning @ 0930 on the morning of the 21st. Take a look at the final chart and you will see the results. The upper portion represents the MIF using EF modifications and the lower portion the raw MIF prediction using a growth rate of 1.51. It only runs to about 1430 because that is where I decided to begin my holiday weekend. :-)



The overriding question we are left with is what does all this mean? Well, all I can say for sure is that I’m not sure. There are obvious relationships that are going on between these energy waves that as of yet I don’t fully understand. I said it in one of the earlier posts on this thread … there is something there right in front of me that I am just missing.



That's it for now. Hope you guys are getting something out of this but that of course is a question only you can answer. ;-) For those in the States enjoy the holiday weekend and to all stay safe.


Best,
Joe
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