ES emini

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Simon.B
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Re: ES emini

Post by Simon.B » Fri Mar 04, 2016 4:47 am

Hi all,

Just to update Market's progress - below is a weekly chart of ES continuous contract. We can see how Market went through two nearly identical declines in time and price. These are usually corrective patterns which resolve in Market continuing in direction it was moving before it entered correction. A bit early still to project new highs, but rally has already made up more than half of the decline.
ES_WEEKLY.png
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Good trading,
Simon

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Baha
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Re: ES emini

Post by Baha » Sat Mar 05, 2016 5:15 pm

Hi Simon,

Looks like the market hit the 61.8 retracement on your chart Friday. On a daily chart it looks a little overbought at the moment. I agree with you and my overall bullish outlook for the ES continues. If it corrects this week I will be looking for a pullback to buy again.

Simon.B
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Re: ES emini

Post by Simon.B » Sun Mar 20, 2016 6:59 pm

Hi Everyone,

ES is progressing pretty much as expected, but I wanted to show Nasdaq-100 cash chart here.

It's easy to see how well important Fib levels were respected on the way down, first 78.6% retracement created a nice bounce, and then 88.6% one finally stopped decline for good it seems.

But now that Markets are recovering with lots of poise - Nas100 approached 61.8% retracement level of the whole sell off during the last 3 trading days, and so far did not manage to close above it. Note also vertical dashed line which has arrow pointed to it with 61.8% time retracement, that time window looks to be tomorrow. So a little caution is warranted over the next few days, since it looks like Nas100 is at Fib price and time levels. This kind of confluence is actually a two edged sword, because even though most of the time it does create a retreat from prevailing trend at least short term, once taken out - Markets tend to continue in the main trend direction dynamically with newly found strength, and try to attain the next important level as soon as they can. There is a gap on the chart that I think will get filled sooner or later, and that will approach another set of strong Fib resistance levels.

A lot of traders miss this point thinking that if price and time squaring failed to stop and/or reverse the Market - that these tools have failed. But these confluences always tell us something about Market's intentions, and sometimes more when they fail than otherwise. If Market is able to crush through price and time confluence, it is a great tell of it's strength, and standing in it's way is not very profitable :)
Nas_100_cash_DAILY.png
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Good trading
Last edited by Simon.B on Mon Mar 21, 2016 2:28 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Baha
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Re: ES emini

Post by Baha » Sun Mar 20, 2016 11:46 pm

In terms of time in ES, Tuesday this week 3/22/2016 sticks out for me.
Prior highs and lows come together to agree and point out to that date.
We shall see.
I am watching gold closely to go up to 1300 level and hopefully find a chance to go short from there maybe.

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Baha
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Re: ES emini

Post by Baha » Mon Apr 04, 2016 1:43 pm

Greetings,

I went short ES today. I went short JPY last night and I have been long Gold. These markets are correlated, specially Gold and JPY has an inverse correlation. We will see what happens. happy trading

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Baha
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Re: ES emini

Post by Baha » Wed Apr 06, 2016 5:34 pm

Well, I went flat today. Closed my short ES and short Yen positions. The market is confusing at the moment, at least for me. It has been testing my conviction. Tomorrow there is a BOJ meeting. I didn't want to get into all the volatility and decided to keep what I made from the yen trade.Japanese yen hit a time stop today as well, so I got out. There is a big divergence between Yen and SPX. My confusion stems from whether Es will go down or the USDJPY will have more strength. Dollar is still falling, so, again, I am not sure.

20 points from ES isn't perfect. I wish I held the position longer as I always try to but it is better than losing.
I am still long Gold though I may get stopped later this week. The size is not that significant. I can sleep with that.
Happy trading
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Feinberg
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Re: ES emini

Post by Feinberg » Thu Jun 30, 2016 11:51 am

I was surprised last week when, prior to the Brexit vote, the market gapped up Sunday night and it looked like there was "artificial" support at 2071.

When I was looking at the chart there was chart Support-Resistance at 2075.00 where the red arrows are.

And go figure, the rebound came back up to 2075.00 :o

Joseph

PS Not shown, there is a key Fibonacci ratio of a prior swing that you should do.
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ForJL
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Re: ES emini

Post by ForJL » Thu Jun 30, 2016 4:36 pm

Hi Joe,

A very astute observation. Yes, the market came back to find temporary resistance at a well established accumulation/distribution line. However, try taking it to the next levl by defining the energy channel and then measuring it using fib expansion ratios. When you place it on the A/D line you will find that you nail the bottom perfectly. There are other things going on here but that's all I have tome for now.

Best,
Joe
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