GEOS & Natal Forecast

[ForJL]

This is going to be a very brief post on the combination of a a GEOS pattern and Natal Forecast that has been treating me quite well since the 27th of last month. Those of you who are familiar with the way I do these things should be able to spot where the harmonic adjustment was needed on the energy wave ending on 10/3 at around 0400. Other than that the usual caveats of dealing with NF's and the fact we are also at a potential inversion point should also be considered.

Joe

[ForJL]

I was planning on doing a follow up to the ES but since it didn't generate a lot of interest I'll just pass on that. Instead I'm going to focus here on a long term Gold forecast I have been working on. The Natal has been giving me tons of problems and is not yet complete but I decided to post it anyway and see if it can elicit comments or opinions from others. The GEOS pattern suggests that if the market can continue higher an initial target of @2190 could be achieved. The Natal is suggesting otherwise however predicting a drop to @1100 (1600 would also be possible) by the end of the decade. Given the global unrest at the moment it's hard to imagine a scenario where that could occur though I do have long term cyclic work which indicates that assets could move out of the market on a longer term basis. The wildcard with the Natal is that we are in a general area where inversion can take place.

Joe

[sbank]

> Given the global unrest at the moment it's hard to imagine a scenario where that could occur though [...]

I do not have any long term views on gold, but I have been trading it successfully for a couple years now. I think the idea of gold as a "store of value" seems to not hold up anymore. I have long conversations (over adult beverages) with a friend of mine around this. With the advent of Bitcoin, and the uncertainty in the world, I am not sure that gold is as important as it once was.

As for GEOS, I have no comment as it still hurts my head trying to understand it. LoL.

[ForJL]

Hi Steve,

I have had many such conversations with friends and over a wide variety of subjects though can't recall any that pertained to gold. Though I have thought along the same lines over the past few years myself. Time will tell I suppose but I have my doubts about bitcoin which I still consider a pseudo asset.

Anyhow in spite of the recent runup, which included a $25 jump in price the day after posting, the forecast still remains intact, at least for now. I am starting to see some structural cracks in my mid-late term cyclic work which might change things entirely but not there yet.

As for GEOS, perhaps you can try looking at it after a couple of those adult beverages. Really though, it's not that difficult, and it really is quite versatile. As you know I have wanted to put it into W59 for some time now but cannot get in touch with Earik no matter what I do. If it ever happens I'll explain it in depth. On that you have my word.

Best,
Joe

PS If you want to understand Gold a little better, take a look at Pluto.

[ForJL]

I put together this short term Natal last Monday and because it's performance has been fairly solid I thought I would post it today. If you decide to consider it I advise that you double check it against your own work. 

      The second chart is something I call GGL. I didn't do this in W59 but you can certainly do something similar if you choose. I usually don't post charts that aren't done in W59 but did want to show the Volume Profile which adds another perspective of the market. Perhaps advanced volume analytics is something Earik might consider adding in a future upgrade. Forecast begins after the second orange dot.


      Joe

[sbank]

FYI, There is a volume profile script in the QScript library:

http://www.wave59.com/library/scriptdetail.asp?id=200

2023-10-25_08-33-02.png (43.98 KiB) Viewed 27457 times

[ForJL]

Hi Steve,

    It's been ages since I last looked in the Qscript Library but will definitely check it out. Thanks for the tip.

      While there is still a little time left to the NF forecast it's pretty obvious targets are not going to be reached. For a while there I thought the forecast might have inverted but that didn't pan out  either. Still, this can be a teachable moment so let me try and salvage something here. 

     As I said, targets were not reached and there are reasons for that, but the energy wave was still valid. Thus, we can use energy waves to define an energy signature. Once energy signatures are defined we can use them in numerous ways. So sticking with the topic of the thread let's use the newly defined energy signature to build a GEOS pattern. All we need to do is build the pattern to fit the width, in time, of the energy signature. We then simply anchor the pattern to price with one of the anchor points. The chart pictured below is what I have been using for the past couple of days and as you can see it contained price movement quite well giving me excellent short term price targets. So while the NF was a dud I was still able to extract something useful from it.

Best,
Joe

[ForJL]

It would of course be helpful if I posted the correct chart. The GEOS posted yesterday was that of the ES, the GC is below. My apologies for the error.

Joe