ES Energy Flow Forecast

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ForJL
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ES Energy Flow Forecast

Post by ForJL » Mon Jan 31, 2022 6:13 pm

I did this GEFF for a friend back towards the end of November after the original forecast I had done for him blew up. While I put a lot of effort into this one you can never tell how long they are going to last, though the optimal forecast period on this one runs through September of this year. That said, it has been exemplary the past two months or so and decided to share it with the forum.


I have written about these things before but will quickly cover them again for those who might be new to my work. Each Energy Wave is a fractal and is a forecast unto itself. Thus, by using the same basic inputs and only changing the harmonics we can look deeper and deeper in the into the energy wave. I actually did a forecast on a smaller Phase but must have deleted it in my covid induced stupor. I do however think I have a screen grab of it from a few weeks ago and if I can find it I will post it here also. Anyhow the primary forecast levels are in lime and red while the secondary’s are green and maroon. Finally, the forecast is designed to catch the close of price and not the extremes. I have often thought about putting bands around the forecast but it is something I have never actually gotten around to doing. Perhaps it is something you guys might want to try but of course that’s your call.


As always I would advise caution when using these things and only use them when you have other analysis that supports their thesis.


All the best,
Joe
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Re: ES Energy Flow Forecast

Post by ForJL » Tue Feb 01, 2022 10:34 pm

As it turned out I couldn't find the screen grab of the shorter Phase so I just did everything from the top. Therefore this chart is up to date. As you can see it back tests just fine but actually only used it today. So will it hold up? To tell you the truth I'm really not sure. The inversion windows are not well defined and then there is that very narrow trading range predicted over the 3rd which I find suspect. However a forecast is what a forecast is.

Just a couple of other things while I am thinking about them. I called this an Energy Flow Forecast but it's actually a W59 Natal using Energy Flow principals. I haven't done an actual Energy Flow forecast for a while now because of the huge amount of time they take to put together. Additionally, in this example I'm showing the settings that I used in case others want to take a crack at putting together their own forecast. The basic settings are the same as the Daily forecast with the exception of the harmonics. Finally I'm going out of town for the next few days but feel free to write any comments or questions you may have and I will answer them when I get back.

Joe
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Re: ES Energy Flow Forecast

Post by ForJL » Wed Apr 06, 2022 9:50 pm

I posted this forecast at the end of January (red horizontal line on chart) so thought I would do an update. For the most part it has been treating me real well as you can see but looks as they say can be deceiving so lets take a closer look. We get a bit of a surprise with energy wave #7 as the market shoots up. It would be very easy to think at this point that an inversion had taken place and the rally would continue. However that’s not what happened and by the 11th the market had started to come back down. In the old Energy Flow forecast there was an inversion window that spanned 17% - 27% of the energy wave length. Unfortunately it doesn’t work that way applying EF principles to the Natal Forecast. Additionally these things are designed to give point to point predictions. If you want to know what is going to occur between points you must delve deeper into the fractal of the energy wave itself. On that basis we essentially nail it with the harmonic adjustment. However there was a very painful swing in the opposite direction of @200 points in between. This is of course the reason why you never make trading decisions using these forecasts alone and must have supporting analysis to act on a trade. Energy wave #8 was fine but still had 200 point swings away from the forecast until we reach it’s conclusion. Again, point to point is fine. Energy wave #9 essentially nails it after adjustment. How do you adjust these things? In very simple terms just double the length of the energy wave if the target price gets exceeded. If that one gets exceeded double it again. To adjust down halve it. Keep in mind the obvious limitations in adjusting down. So now we are onto energy wave # 10 and time will tell.

Even with the shortfalls I have been quite happy with the results. No doubt in part because I am familiar with how to use these things and understand thier strength’s and weaknesses. Were you to toss out the price prediction completely you would still be left with some very powerful change in trend signals (CIT’s) which in and by themselves could be quite profitable. It takes a lot of effort to put these things together that’s for sure, but done correctly they are well worth the time.


Best,
Joe
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Re: ES Energy Flow Forecast

Post by ForJL » Thu Apr 07, 2022 10:16 pm

So I ran into a bit of a dilemma today that dovetails into the overall discussion on the NF. As I have already stated numerous times, if you want to see what is going on within energy waves you have to dig deeper and deeper into the fractal. The chart below shows just such an example. This NF is using the exact same setup as the main forecast. The only difference is their harmonics. As you can see it has been treating me extremely well for over a week with no harmonic modifications needed at all (boy, do I love that). Additionally there has been no shift in price, only an inversion (blue plot is normal, red is inverted). Through 0630 this morning it seemed that the forecast would hold true and the market would rally only for it to decline steadily through most of the day. It would be easy to say that the market simply inverted again but the decline wasn’t even close to an inversion point (the end of one energy wave and the beginning of another) so I had my doubts. Sure enough we get the late rally. At this point my confidence in the forecast is mediocre at best and would rely more heavily on other analysis. That is not to say I would toss this NF out. Quite the contrary. These forecasts almost always come back to form given time. The reason why is the focus of this post.

You see this forecast is still valid as long as the primary forecast is in effect. How can that be? How can a forecast still be valid when it appears it may well be becoming ineffectual? What is most likely going on is a strong, short term energy signature has taken temporary control of the market. So this is a very localized event. If I were to make an analogy it would be of that to a hurricane, natures most powerful storm. A hurricane will often spawn tornadoes, powerful storms in their own right, and locally, even more powerful than the hurricane itself. While the hurricane is unleashing many times more the amount of energy than the tornado, on a localized level, it is the tornado doing the most damage. Much like a tornado that begins to disperse, the localized energy signature will eventually decay and the forecast will return to form. I have actually been using this forecast for some time now. Much longer then the 10 or so days shown on the chart. During that period the forecast has from time to time gone out of favor only to right itself and come back with strong results. So if and when you start looking into the fractal nature of these forecasts, don’t be to quick to give up on it if it goes off the rails for a time. Give it a chance and you may find that it is only a temporary phenomena that will eventually pass with time.


Joe
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Re: ES Energy Flow Forecast

Post by ForJL » Fri Apr 08, 2022 3:22 pm

Someone asked for this.
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Re: ES Energy Flow Forecast

Post by ForJL » Tue Apr 12, 2022 12:20 pm

I'm going to assume that if anyone has tried this they are hung-up on the exchange part. Okay, so here's the hint, the exchange moves over time but it is always the same thing. Good luck with it.

Joe
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Re: ES Energy Flow Forecast

Post by ForJL » Wed Apr 20, 2022 10:48 pm

Hi Guys,

 I have written a few times about drilling down deeper into the fractal if you wanted to see more detail in these types of forecasts and thought I would take a look at this today. Let's start out by taking a look at the bigger picture first. The first chart shows what I call a Phase 8 forecast and could not be happier with it. Over the months that I have been using it, it has treated me quite well. Still, there are deficiencies. Point to point, no complaints, but there are times where you can be in the middle of  one of those energy waves and get hit with some pretty wild swings in either direction. You can mitigate this to a certain extent by looking deeper into the fractal. The next chart moves down to a Phase 5 forecast and is one I introduced in my last post. As already stated it is using the same inputs as the P8 but with different harmonics. It too has also been doing quite well but suffers from the shortcomings as that of the larger forecast. So what do we do? Well, we can drill down even further. The next chart looks at a Phase 4 forecast and also uses the same inputs as the others, though again, with different harmonics. As you can see from @0200 this morning until 1030 or so it was doing great. Unfortunately that is also where the trouble begins. By 1030 it was apparent that the forecast had suffered a shift and an adjustment was needed ... easy enough. However by 1150 I could not tell if the forecast had continued  its shift, inverted, or both. About the only information I was getting from it was that the market had moved into a fairly narrow trading range and that it was probably best to sit it out for a while. It did give me a general idea about a potential breakout but had now also suffered another shift. The problem with these types of forecasts is that you can never totally eliminate the effects of local transient energy. At least I sure can't and have been trying to do so for over 15 years now. Even with these deficiencies this  forecast still was able to impart valuable information today. It was solid through the open and a bit beyond, suggested I sit out a good portion of the day, and finally gave me a rough idea of when the market would breakout. 


For anyone who is interested, the harmonics I am using here are 627/47. All else is the same as the other two Phases. I realize the issue for a lot of you guys is the exchange settings. Unfortunately that is a subject I will not broach. All I will say is you must think in different terms to truly understand it. Once you do it becomes fairly straightforward. Good luck to any and all who give it a try.

Best,
Joe
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Re: ES Energy Flow Forecast

Post by ForJL » Wed Apr 27, 2022 3:46 pm

The market has reached the forecasted bottom a lot quicker than I expected. By itself it doesn't mean a thing because these things can be off by a mile. However if the slide in the market continues this would be the new updated target. Just so you know, I have been using this forecast for a while now but the red vertical line represents where I first posted this for the board.
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