FIBS....

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Simon.B
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FIBS....

Post by Simon.B » Thu Aug 27, 2015 2:34 am

Hi everyone,

For the ones who use Fibonacci Levels in their trading.....recent high in S&P's should not have been a surprise, especially for those who attended last PUC in London. There are other interesting relationships at the high, but 161.8% retracement extension of such important swings should have been enough, for those familiar with Fibs, to at least become cautious and use very tight stops if long. The red arrows on the chart point to areas where this set of Fibs showed that it's in rhythm with pattern in progress. One of the best ways to judge if you are looking at the right set of Fibs is to see if it captured CIT's at important Fib levels before, this is the best indication that it will continue to do so in the future.

Good trading
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Last edited by Simon.B on Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.

soldado1976
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Re: FIBS....

Post by soldado1976 » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:06 pm

That is great stuff. I have been using the Fib Vortex according to the rules on this site: http://richuncle.net/wp/?cat=5
I have been watching the ES and using this to aid in trading for two or three years and I love it. Here is today. The pullback this afternoon stopped on the tick of the spiral, as shown. And the spiral was set at 9.30 this morning when prices crossed the moon flux intersection in background.

8 minute bars, scaled .5X.5 per bar.
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Simon.B
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Re: FIBS....

Post by Simon.B » Thu Aug 27, 2015 9:44 pm

Hi Soldato1976,

Good chart, thanks. Vortex can be a great tool in knowledgeable hands. I used to use it also, but certain amount of subjectivity which simply has to be used with this tool - makes a bit more difficult to "lean" on during live trading.

Anyway, let me show what else helped to stop the pullback where it did. Below is ES 15 min. RTH chart. I learned many years ago that there is just no substitute for confluence for obvious reasons, and we can see strong Fib levels of various swings come together in very tight range, including 100% symmetry of largest pullback since this swing started, 61.8% of last swing in to the low, and 38.2% retracement of the largest run up inside this pattern. Now there are a few other interesting relationships there - but these 3 are plenty, especially considering that you are looking for a termination of counter trend pullback. Just the fact that we are able to come up with so many 'golden" ratios in a very tight range - shows how much Markets really do move between various Fib levels, a great argument in my opinion against total randomness in Markets :D .

Good trading,
ES_Pullback.png
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soldado1976
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Re: FIBS....

Post by soldado1976 » Fri Aug 28, 2015 5:35 pm

Thats good stuff. I just looked up (as I have been busy all morning) and saw how well todays action was fitting. I should start printing and framing these...
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abacaba
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Re: FIBS....

Post by abacaba » Tue Sep 01, 2015 12:51 am

I use Fibs too, but for quite a while now I've been using eighth subdivisions. These map, in my practice at least, what are the acoustical foundations of market expansion and contraction. I've attached a different view of the swings that Simon mentioned. Here,for brevity's sake, only the exhaustion swing from 8/25 into 8/26 is used for price extension along with a few harmonic trendlines. The nominal high here is the 8/27 print around 1200 CST, and the mkt. thereafter was responding to the ensuing downswing, and that's the local move traders would (should) have been projecting from to get the true high around 1030 CST on 8/28, but -- the projections from the 8/25 still lingered and formed what would be a confluence zone with similar upside eighth projections from that downswing (not shown). There you have it. Lots of ways to do it.

Todd
ES_15min_eighths.jpg
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Simon.B
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Re: FIBS....

Post by Simon.B » Wed Sep 02, 2015 1:39 am

Todd, thanks for your chart.

I am not sure I understand "lots of ways to do it" part, I can tell you with high degree of confidence, that if you want an objective approach with only two possible scenarios, the best we can ever expect, there is only one way to do it. Market had to make a stand right there and not a point lower in order to have a chance to sustain it's bounce and leave the door open to another swing high. My intent was not to show any approach that happens to land on that price with one of it's lines, it is the importance of that exact level that I wanted to highlight and share a part of technique used to identify it. Just the fact that we allow our self's to believe that there are many different ways to do it - would make any of those methods totally useless in confident trading.

Regards,

abacaba
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Re: FIBS....

Post by abacaba » Wed Sep 02, 2015 4:20 pm

Simon,

We're both concerned with models that account for market behaviour using methods that are self-consistent and repeatable in a variety of situations, that can produce predictions that are falsifiable, and above all support simple binary either/or trading decisions during the day! "Lots of ways to do it" was off the cuff -- what I meant was there is another way of accounting for market price action that one can base trading decisions on with excellent results -- the mathematics of sound. My example was a way to show that. That way has its own protocols, so those levels in the chart could appear to be arbitrary to a Fib trader. Of course, as you have shown in your many examples, a journeyman Fib trader can produce excellent results. I posted this on the "Fibs" thread because In a way, Fibonacci and harmonic analysis are "duals" of one another. I know the later is the path less traveled among traders. That's fine with me.

Todd

Simon.B
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Re: FIBS....

Post by Simon.B » Wed Sep 02, 2015 10:24 pm

Thanks for the explanation Todd....makes sense.

Simon

soldado1976
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Re: FIBS....

Post by soldado1976 » Fri Sep 11, 2015 6:06 pm

Another awesome Vortex fit -
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vortex3.JPG
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Feinberg
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Re: FIBS....

Post by Feinberg » Tue Feb 21, 2017 1:20 pm

This is a 256 minute chart of the e-mini.

I have not seen these two Fibonacci extensions confluences before.

Joseph
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Extensions_256 minute_170221.jpg
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