Aug 14 Astro + Volume

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earik
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Aug 14 Astro + Volume

Post by earik » Fri Aug 14, 2015 10:07 pm

Hi All,

Yesterday's post by Quark about astro trading got me interested in looking at some of this stuff again, and I thought I'd post some of what happened over the last two days. One of the problems with doing intraday astro (or astro in general) is that there are just way too many things going on, and it can be easy to get overwhelmed with all the potential signals. There are a few ways to approach this, but the most basic is just to focus on the "best" aspects in the moment. So what I did was simply use the tighest planetary aspect at the time, and when that aspect changed, I'd switch from one aspect to another. So yesterday, that means we start out with the Mercury-Neptune aspect, and then flip over to the Sun-Venus conjunction when that aspect's orb got tigher than the Merucry-Neptune aspect. If you just watch the aspects list in W59's ephemeris, this means just using whatever the aspect is at the very top.

Here's a chart:
es_astro_14aug2015.png
ES last two days, astro + volume
es_astro_14aug2015.png (54.61 KiB) Viewed 5194 times
The vertical lines on the chart are when the MC or ASC lines up to trigger the smallest-orb aspect in the moment. The shapes I'm using are an octogon or hexagon, depending on whether we're running on the 6th or 8th harmonic, which is pretty much all the ES every does. Remember that the vertical lines are all known ahead of time, so you can do this before the open, then go draw them out on your chart.

The new (and really interesting part) of all of this, is the addition of the bid/ask momentum indicator that the new IQCollector data feed provides. This is the technical filter, and all I really was looking for is for this indicator to issue a signal close to one of the astro times. An issue with astro when used in this way is that it doesn't tell you anything about direction, only that there's a turning point there. Volume is all about direction, and it gives you plenty of warning. I've drawn in arrows when those two things lined up, which happened 5 times (with all of them being great trades).

For now, I'll just watch and see how it all goes moving forward, but I could easily see how a method could be developed around this approach. Interesting stuff..!

All for now,

Earik

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earik
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Re: Aug 14 Astro + Volume

Post by earik » Fri Aug 14, 2015 10:35 pm

Ok, since it's Friday, and no one is on here, I'm going to just reply to my last post and continue the conversation. :D Here's a twist. Rather than using ME-style intraday astro, here's a look using the energy histogram from Astrotrader. For those of you unfamiliar, this is a way to get an automatic read on the ephemeris. So rather than going through and looking for aspects and harmonics, you just inspect the histogram and look for the highest (and lowest) points during the day. Turning points tend to form near those areas. Works on roulette too. ;)
es_astrotrader_14aug2015.png
Astrotrader 8min, bigger swings
es_astrotrader_14aug2015.png (47.54 KiB) Viewed 5192 times
This is an 8min chart. Again, the AT tools don't give you direction, so what we're doing here is looking for an AT high/low point that coincides with an obvious turn in the bid/ask momentum. You don't need the price chart to find the arrows, which makes it pretty easy to solve for signals. If I get some time next week, I might try to program a mechanical system that does this. I don't think I have quite enough volume data to get good backtest results yet, but that's not too far off.

Anyway, you can see the last 10 days. This is a longer-term approach than a 2min chart, and would require holding overnight in a lot of cases, but the signals looked pretty good. 13 total, 8 good ones, 2 that were small wins, or possibly washes, and 3 losers. Again, not exactly a statistically valid sample set with 13 trades, but astro+volume seems to be working. I bet putting this on a 30min chart and using the Nth-profitable-close style exit from the mechanical systems we've talked about would probably be able to hold its own.

All for now (again!)

Earik

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