Energy Trading - July 22

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Feinberg
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Re: Energy Trading - July 22

Post by Feinberg » Sat Aug 20, 2016 9:54 pm

Earik,

I do not understand this at all. What is your interpretation?

The e-mini S&P is making all time highs, but the Cumulative Volume is sorely lacking behind.

The Cumulative Volume peaked on June 17th coincident on option expiration, but since then the Cumulative Volume is making lower Lows and lower Highs.

Is this module correct?

Is this the "summer dull drums?"

Are larger players exiting on strength?

What is your interpretation on this discrepancy?

4 minute 24/7 chart.

Joseph
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Feinberg
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Re: Energy Trading - July 22

Post by Feinberg » Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:27 am

The black line is On Balance Volume. Thank you Earik for this script

It looks to me that when you use the On Balance Volume it is conforming to the markets behavior of higher Highs.

The disadvantage of On Balance Volume is that it assumes when the price bar's Close increases (decreases) from the previous bar's Close, 100% of the volume is allocated to the increase (decrease).

On the other hand it is my understanding that Cumulative Volume nets each trade's contracts at each price per bar, tallies the difference, and accumulates the increase (decrease). I am not sure, but this is my understanding.

I am more inclined "to judge" the markets behavior as to what is going on using Cumulative Volume. I also like the ingenuity of this, so thank you Earik for this. At the same time there are still bugs in the Cumulative Volume for us to use this for real time time trading. For Earik to fix this bug, it is my understand, is a real pain.........a real pain!

But we can still use this as an "end of day" tool, which is how I have been following this, as Earik initially described Cumulative Volume as "what is going on under the hood (of the car)."

And in this regard, my first reaction to what is going on is larger players are net sellers, and my second reaction is "summer dull drums", or perhaps both.

Thank you Earik for this.

Joseph

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Feinberg
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Re: Energy Trading - July 22

Post by Feinberg » Sun Sep 11, 2016 8:30 pm

Hi,

It is clear to me now that larger players have been selling into strength all summer long.

The Cumulative Volume (blue ) has been in a clear downtrend ever since the expiration of the June ES contract on June 17th.

When you look at the data lately, often the Cumulative Volume will peak on a certain day, and then the following day, prices make a peak.

With the On Balance Volume Indicator (black), it double topped on June 17th and on August 15th.

Joseph

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