Re: My Own Work
Posted: Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:34 am
Hi Robert,
I appreciate your comments and had a great weekend to boot, thanks. The GREG_k chart did just as well on Friday catching both the high and low nearly perfectly (I think it missed the low by about a point and a half). Right now the chart is of little value because it has moved to deep into the fan. It might have some utility later in the day again but it does need updating. While working today I plan on taking it easy and just looking to wind down some longer term positions I have so haven’t put together an updated chart but will do so soon.
While I’m here I did want to touch on something in my NF which occurred on Friday. Now I took Friday off but had I been trading I would have been looking at this forecast (2nd chart) and licking my chops because it has been great thus far. Lets look more closely though at Friday's afternoon action. Around 1100 I would be looking to short the market and by @1345 you would be looking golden. However not for to long because by 1500 the market flips on a dime. Now I would have been fine had I been trading because my cyclic work called it perfectly. On the other hand if you were using the NF as the sole basis of your trading decisions you would have gotten clobbered. What happened was we got a shift in the forecast and at a very inopportune time because we miss the inversion timing. Within Energy Flow theory inversions can only happen at the end of energy waves. So once we got the shift it tossed everything out of whack. As a little aside here it should be noted that following forecast shift we often get what I have termed the “snap back effect.” It’s a bit complicated but within EF theory forecast shift is now assumed, and I stress assumed, to be caused by strong isolated transit energy bursts. Their effect is short lived and as their energy dissipates there is a short term tug of war between it and the dominant energy signature that is driving the NF. Sort of like a rubber band that is first stretched and then let go. Once the transit energy has fully decayed we are back to normal … sort of.
You can always tell when I have time on my hands because I talk a lot more. That’s about it for now though.
Good trading to all,
Joe
I appreciate your comments and had a great weekend to boot, thanks. The GREG_k chart did just as well on Friday catching both the high and low nearly perfectly (I think it missed the low by about a point and a half). Right now the chart is of little value because it has moved to deep into the fan. It might have some utility later in the day again but it does need updating. While working today I plan on taking it easy and just looking to wind down some longer term positions I have so haven’t put together an updated chart but will do so soon.
While I’m here I did want to touch on something in my NF which occurred on Friday. Now I took Friday off but had I been trading I would have been looking at this forecast (2nd chart) and licking my chops because it has been great thus far. Lets look more closely though at Friday's afternoon action. Around 1100 I would be looking to short the market and by @1345 you would be looking golden. However not for to long because by 1500 the market flips on a dime. Now I would have been fine had I been trading because my cyclic work called it perfectly. On the other hand if you were using the NF as the sole basis of your trading decisions you would have gotten clobbered. What happened was we got a shift in the forecast and at a very inopportune time because we miss the inversion timing. Within Energy Flow theory inversions can only happen at the end of energy waves. So once we got the shift it tossed everything out of whack. As a little aside here it should be noted that following forecast shift we often get what I have termed the “snap back effect.” It’s a bit complicated but within EF theory forecast shift is now assumed, and I stress assumed, to be caused by strong isolated transit energy bursts. Their effect is short lived and as their energy dissipates there is a short term tug of war between it and the dominant energy signature that is driving the NF. Sort of like a rubber band that is first stretched and then let go. Once the transit energy has fully decayed we are back to normal … sort of.
You can always tell when I have time on my hands because I talk a lot more. That’s about it for now though.
Good trading to all,
Joe