Re: Natal Forecast Using EMGP
Posted: Wed May 27, 2020 1:57 am
Okay so how did we do today? As always nothing is ever perfect but if you understand the laws of infinite potential the forecast did well. There was a fairly substantial drop in price that began around 1120 that the forecast didn’t pick up but the secondary indicator on the chart got perfectly (more on that in a moment). There were also a few areas on the chart where we could have run into what I call the “matchstick problem”. So what is the matchstick problem? I covered this on the old forum some time ago but will touch on it briefly here now for those who are not familiar with it. Because of the law of infinite potential we can expand or contract the energy waves indefinitely by multiplying by 2 for expansions and dividing by 2 for contractions. Following this method generally yields no issues for energy wave expansions. Energy wave contractions are a different story. If for instance an energy wave is short when measured in time we can pretty much produce an energy wave of any size to fit our needs. If I had the time and enough matchsticks I could trace out a pattern hundreds of miles long of any shape you could imagine with a fair degree of accuracy. So depending on the energy wave in the prediction the user can run into the same issue and in essence predict nothing. There is nothing worse in trading then allowing yourself to see just what you want to see. Ergo “This above all, to thine own self be true”. Act I Scene III The Tragedy of Hamlet, Prince of Denamrk. Just felt like throwing that in. When I have more time I will revisit the issue and explain how to avoid this kind of trap. Bottom line though is I believe this was a very strong forecast.
Now let me pivot back to that secondary indicator. It is nothing more then an Aspect study that I run which in this case is based on a crash of’87 model. Now if you recall from this mornings post the Natal Forecast was based on the low of the 20th century. Stop for a second and think of what I just said there. One is based on a significant high and the other a significant low. It is my belief that there are two very large and very different energy signatures vying to dominate the market.
[You see I build these models on situational circumstance. While I know most of you guys use natal dates my research has shown situational historic dates to yield superior results. That is not to say that Natal’s don’t have their place in this kind of work. Quite the contrary, they are very important. However if you want to take these forecasts to a different level I suggest you research history.]
In the end only one will come out on top. Which one will it be of course is the $64,000 question. Over the weekend I had that discussion with a good friend of mine, trader extraordinaire, and member of this board, Joseph Feinberg. We agreed that we could have been at a very long term cyclical top back in February that could result in repercussions that could last years. While I am tempted to get into some of the fundamentals here that would certainly go beyond the purview of this thread. Perhaps some other time, some other thread.
Anyhow I’m all over the place here so allow me to get back to the Aspect study. It was golden! Out of nine calls eight were on the money! Out of those eight you can make the argument that six were for fairly substantial moves to boot! To say I was pleased with them would be an understatement. This is one of the reasons I decide to come back to Wave 59. It is a program like no other. There are just so many unique areas of research that can be done with it that can’t be done any where else. Get out of your comfort zone, think out of the box and there is no telling where you can take it! My guess is by now you guys can tell I had a really good day today … time to call it a night.
Best,
Joe
Now let me pivot back to that secondary indicator. It is nothing more then an Aspect study that I run which in this case is based on a crash of’87 model. Now if you recall from this mornings post the Natal Forecast was based on the low of the 20th century. Stop for a second and think of what I just said there. One is based on a significant high and the other a significant low. It is my belief that there are two very large and very different energy signatures vying to dominate the market.
[You see I build these models on situational circumstance. While I know most of you guys use natal dates my research has shown situational historic dates to yield superior results. That is not to say that Natal’s don’t have their place in this kind of work. Quite the contrary, they are very important. However if you want to take these forecasts to a different level I suggest you research history.]
In the end only one will come out on top. Which one will it be of course is the $64,000 question. Over the weekend I had that discussion with a good friend of mine, trader extraordinaire, and member of this board, Joseph Feinberg. We agreed that we could have been at a very long term cyclical top back in February that could result in repercussions that could last years. While I am tempted to get into some of the fundamentals here that would certainly go beyond the purview of this thread. Perhaps some other time, some other thread.
Anyhow I’m all over the place here so allow me to get back to the Aspect study. It was golden! Out of nine calls eight were on the money! Out of those eight you can make the argument that six were for fairly substantial moves to boot! To say I was pleased with them would be an understatement. This is one of the reasons I decide to come back to Wave 59. It is a program like no other. There are just so many unique areas of research that can be done with it that can’t be done any where else. Get out of your comfort zone, think out of the box and there is no telling where you can take it! My guess is by now you guys can tell I had a really good day today … time to call it a night.
Best,
Joe