Comparison of various Forecasting System

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rlygangesh
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Comparison of various Forecasting System

Post by rlygangesh » Tue Jan 03, 2017 12:19 pm

Hi Earil , Lars, & all
During the journey of trading every trader think/ imagine that it will be very good if i know future date/price/time of market turn . maximum are thinking that will be holy grill for him.
Almost all technical trader searching/studying a lot for this Holy grill but they try to find 100% accurate system that can define every turn of market in advance while about of 90% of trader knows that facts that
" There Is No Holy Grill In Stock Market"
after investing lot of time & money Trader are ready to manage with % accuracy term & when they are ready to admit that Accuracy is useless Only Making The Money is the real system
They find Holy Grill for them

For forecasting the future market there are some very good approach given by wave 59 but which one is more useful is still a tricky question. Some of these type of technique are:-
1. Predict
2. Harmonic Index
3. Natal Forecast
4. MARKET ASTROPHYSICS
6. Cycle Theory Of Lars
5. Unified Theory Of Market

I had used some of above technique in my analysis & i found that
1 Predict :- This Indicator is simple Neural Network Design that can update after every bar but its have limitations to predict 2-3 bar only in future & also it can forecast the other indicator only so the performance is depended upon indicator performance, best indicator for predict is USM but one can't rely solely on it

2. Harmonic Index :- That indicator derives its calculation only from longitude & latitude of Stock market, one can't rely only upon it that many stock are moved in opposite direction for some time & than they moved with direction

3. Natal Forecast :- That indicator based on particular market & Particular stock , but its inversion property are still unanswered area & also fitting the natal forecast in appropriate time frame is a good task

4. Market Astro :- i have not studied very well in this field but is our group rate this higher than no issue to study

5. Cycle theory of Lars :- In my opinion it is a great tool collection(Specially Dominent cycle,& swing indicator) with good accuracy rate , but Lars haven't defined a clear cut trading plan how to trade with their cycle indicator, I have a subscription of whentotrade.com so can't say more about it

6. Unified Theory Of Market:- (Thanks to generous group of wave 59)
All of above indicator can deal with time only nothing about price, with their market structure setup UTM leads price & time both but that system have some lack (sorry my opinion only ) like some static parameters while defining price & time , & it is fine tune by geometrical shape, angle still you have to choose one technical indicator to push the button.
all of task are important to define a turn you can't miss anything & still one can't say that it is point where market turns

in my opinion Unified theory have lots of works to be done only for future movement(trade management is lacking) & one can't have good accuracy rate with it


so i requested to all please rate all of above system so that all group member can take benefit from it

Also requested to Lars (if active) please arrange a new webinar for their cycle toolkit

i m a new user of wave 59 (only 2 month) so if my analysis may be wrong so requste to all please rate & correct my point

& last request to Earik please correct my thought & open a discussion so that member can discuss these thing.
Maximum User haven't taken Mechanical book so they can't comment on any question related to GA but
member can discuss the other things
rlygangesh@gmail.com

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nagib63
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Re: Comparison of various Forecasting System

Post by nagib63 » Tue Jan 03, 2017 1:08 pm

Hi rlygangesh

I will be able to answer to the UTM. The book is very good but until you take part of the London Seminar in 2013 you cannot really see the whole picture. Unfortunately I cannot really help because of copyrights.

The only thing I can tell you is that the UTM aka Big Bertha is a wonderful tool to use. And trade management isn't lacking since the London Seminar. It is a whole system of his own and accuracy is useless in this case.

Regards

nagib56 or 63
"It's not whether you're right or wrong that's
important, but how much money you make
when you're right and how much you lose
when you're wrong."
George Soros

rlygangesh
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Location: Mumbai, India
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Re: Comparison of various Forecasting System

Post by rlygangesh » Tue Jan 03, 2017 1:55 pm

Hi Nagib63
Thanks for reply

i think that conference dvd isn't available on wave 59 store so there are no way to know about seminar content

Nagib63 & Earik
are there any option to understand Aka Big Bertha fully
rlygangesh@gmail.com

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earik
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Re: Comparison of various Forecasting System

Post by earik » Tue Jan 03, 2017 4:26 pm

Hi rlygangesh,
i think that conference dvd isn't available on wave 59 store so there are no way to know about seminar content ...
are there any option to understand Aka Big Bertha fully
If you haven't purchased the book to start with, a request like this isn't going to fall on very sympathetic ears. That conference was not recorded on purpose, in order to protect the content and the tools for the attendees. Having said that, everything you need to get started is in the book already. But you have to study it, and apply it over and over to your market. When you are exploring, and if you have access to lots of books, etc, from somewhere, it's easy to fly through this stuff. But the faster you go, the less you learn. Two months isn't very long. Read that book again, then apply those tools to your charts every day for an entire year, and then you'll be in a better position to say whether it works or not. You have to burn it into your subconscious in a way. That's the only way to make it yours.

I've traded using just USM by the way, and not the predict-enhanced version. It's very do-able, as is trading with any of the other tools you mentioned. What will determine whether you make money or lose it isn't the tool itself, but the way you manage your risk. If you are shooting for accuracy, and risking 10 points to make 1, then there's no system that will work for you in the long run. But if your wins are larger than your losses, and you are disciplined, you only need 50% accuracy to be profitable. Plenty of the traders I used to work with had lower accuracy than that, and they still made enough to support themselves and their families. This is a game of probabilities, not certainty. Try to be right more often than you are wrong, and make sure you win more when you are right than you lose when you are wrong. If you can manage that much, then you can use whatever tools strike your fancy.

Regards,

Earik

rlygangesh
Posts: 39
Joined: Sun Oct 02, 2016 3:40 pm
Location: Mumbai, India
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Re: Comparison of various Forecasting System

Post by rlygangesh » Tue Jan 03, 2017 5:21 pm

Thanks Earik

Thanks for your sympathetic & valuable reply
"everything you need to get started is in the book already. But you have to study it, and apply it over and over to your market. When you are exploring, and if you have access to lots of books, etc, from somewhere, it's easy to fly through this stuff. But the faster you go, the less you learn. Two months isn't very long. Read that book again, then apply those tools to your charts every day for an entire year"

you know but you given an elite class reply & also given solution
"This is a game of probabilities, not certainty. Try to be right more often than you are wrong"

i got your point
thanks again
rlygangesh@gmail.com

NDscorpini
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Joined: Tue Jul 21, 2015 10:34 pm

Re: Comparison of various Forecasting System

Post by NDscorpini » Thu Jan 05, 2017 8:51 pm

Hi All,
I recently read the following post from Dr. Lindemann's website. It is a "free energy" website but I do think it is applicable to this discussion.

"Philosophically, this is what I found. The facts of science are on your WORK BENCH. Your interpretations of these facts are in your MIND, characterized by the accuracy of your observations and by the imperfections in your mental model of reality. The reports of your interpretations are in these FORUMS and other records, a full two steps removed from the facts. This is why if you don't build and run the experiment yourself, you are left with believing someone else's interpretations and you cut yourself off from the opportunity to pick up on the trail of discovery left by earlier experimenters. As long as you discipline yourself to never confuse these things, the one from the other, you have begun your own genuine discovery process."

I found this to be true in my own trading. I hope this helps/inspires members on this board.
Best wishes,
NDscorpini

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